wrong, you can't. So far there is no linear statistical model to summarize the correlation between these two.
Technical analyst for commodites trading is meaningless as the outcome of middle east crisis is unknown, plus a lot of alternative fuels(ethonal) in competing with the oil, the acceptance by public is growing, therefore, you can not determine the cause of future price movement, then how can it be possiblely for you to quantify spot price.
It will make sense for a producer to hedge 20% of its production to cover its operating cost, but there are many other factors for market participants to long/short in the future. Hence, it is more complicated to find such relationship.
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