What's up with the price of oil any insight where's the bottom?

I've been really watching the market for the past couple of years and the way oil has bubbled and then dropped is pretty astounding. Now to me it appears that the price increase was a huge bubble, but I still feel like we're getting back to a price that's prob too low as well.





I'm thinking if oil gets under 40 dollars a barrel and closer to what it was pre-bubble about throwing some money down in a oil tracking ETF. Wondering what people thoughts are on oil and if they think that's a good idea or if it will even get that low or if it'll go lower.What's up with the price of oil any insight where's the bottom?
As others mentioned, oil's rise to $147 was based on speculation as well as a weakening US Dollar. However, as the global economy slowed down more than expected, the US Dollar gained value relative to other currencies, resulting in a huge decline in commodity prices, including oil. On top of this, the economic slowdown has caused a drop in the demand for oil distillates which, too, has helped drag prices lower. However, I currently have to agree with you that oil is approaching very attractive long-term levels. Considering the government has already used $1.3 trillion in monetary stimulus to support the financial system, and has pledged an additional $6.5 trillion should it be needed, all funded by debt issuance, it is hard to not make a case for an inflationary environment. When the global economy recovers, it is very likely that the US will emerge a weaker player, with substantially more debt, which should push the dollar dramatically lower. Should this happen, the price of oil will likely retest recent highs, and possibly continue higher. That means that one needs to determine when the recession will end and a recovery will begin, because until then we will remain in a deflationary environment. I have been entering commodity-related companies in the past week to initiate positions and am looking to add at future technical support levels. Just my opinion, I hope it helps.





Best of luck!What's up with the price of oil any insight where's the bottom?
High oil prices were a result of speculation and the low dollar. As a result of the high prices we are awash in oil and the supply is more than the demand. We are in the beginning of a recession and other major oil consuming countries have weakening economies too and weak demand for oil. Oil prices have always been volatile. Prices could drop another 30-40 percent and stay low for a few years in the absence of geopolitical factors.
The $40/bbl level you mention has been huge resistance for many years, and will undoubtedly offer huge support, should the price ever reach that low. I would be a big buyer at that level.





For now, $50 seems to be offering good support, unlikely to penetrate that level in the near-term.
That's like asking someone to predict tonight's winning lottery numbers.
There is no sign of a bottom and until the economy is better then I am not sure. It most likely is going to take a serious economic recovery or a serious dollar collapse to bring the price of oil up. When the dollar collapses during this current phony dollar rally, I do not know. However, there is no such thing as going down to much as a great teacher of mine Brian Shannon from alpahtrends.net says in his daily technical analysis videos. I would not be a buyer in oil until the message of the market says buy and right now the message says to short it if you do anything





Good luck


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