Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Is there a formula that shows the relationship between oil futures prices and gasoline prices?

Gas prices at the pump are determined by the 5 oil companies. There is no mathematical correlation of barrel prices to pump prices. To prove that remember when barrel prices come down the pump prices remain static. The pump price of oil is determined by basically a monopoly.Is there a formula that shows the relationship between oil futures prices and gasoline prices?
Duhhhhhhhhhh...no...of course not.Is there a formula that shows the relationship between oil futures prices and gasoline prices?
This is never completely constant. It depends on too many variables. If there was a set formula, someone would have found it, wrote a book on it, and tons of ppl would be making fortunes in futures and options. So... no.
There are 42 gallons of oil in a barrel, and, while not all of the oil ends up becoming gasoline, simply dividing the moves in oil prices by 42 gets you pretty close.





There are futures in wholesale gasoline, which is considerably cheaper than retail gasoline, in part because of taxes and in part because of the costs of actually transporting the gasoline from the delivery point of the futures contracts (where it tends to be cheaper than average) to the gas station; there are traders who trade the spread between the two contracts, buying futures on oil and selling them on gasoline or vice versa in anticipation of refining bottlenecks. By and large, though, refining costs run around 5 to 10 cents per gallon of gas; most of the cost of gasoline is due to the cost of the oil, and the next biggest cost is taxes.

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